Thursday, 26 February 2015

Analysis of West Bengal By-Elections by Shri Sidharth Nath Singh

Analysis of West Bengal By-Elections by BJP National Secretary & West Bengal Incharge, Shri Sidharth Nath Singh
By elections never alter the constituted assembly but if held within a year of final elections it certainly shows a trend.  Both Bongoan Lok Sabha and Krishnaganj Assembly by Elections in West Bengal do indicate a positive trend for BJP for the coming 2016 Assembly Elections.

Krishnaganj Assembly:  2011(AC)  2014 (AC/PC)  2015 (AC)

TMC : 52% 49%  47.81%
BJP  :  3% 14%  29.3%
CPM:  41% 30%  18.84%

BJP vote share increases by 26.3%, TMC vote share falls by 4.19%, CPM vote share fell by 22.16% and Congress lost their deposit.

In Bongaon Lok Sabha  : 2014 2015

TMC 550003 (43%) 539990 (43.27%)
CPM 403255 (31%) 328196 (26.30%)
BJP  244331(19%) 314119 (25.17%)

Results if analyzed objectively shows the following trend :
  1. BJP vote share has moved up significantly.
  2. TMC and CPM vote share has come down
  3. Anti TMC vote is higher than pro TMC
  4. Anti TMC vote is splits between BJP and CPM. Larger share for BJP.

The three take away from just concluded by elections would be that TMC is on a downslide and BJP is rising. Secondly vote for CPM is a vote for TMC. Lastly BJP has covered lot of ground from 2011 and 2014 elections in Bengal but still need to keep their head down and work harder for their final battle in 2016.

Office Secretary

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